The Real Cost of a Made-in-USA iPhone Might Shock You, Experts Say

As Apple faces mounting political pressure to manufacture iPhones domestically, the big question on everyone’s mind is: how much will this cost consumers? Since President Donald Trump publicly demanded that Apple move iPhone production to the United States—warning of a 25% tariff otherwise—the notion of an American-made iPhone has sparked a firestorm of debate.

Industry experts and financial analysts offer sharply differing perspectives on how much the shift in manufacturing could drive up prices, and whether a $3,500 price tag per device is realistic or simply alarmist.

On May 23, President Trump took to social media to issue a direct warning to Apple CEO Tim Cook: “I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhones that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.”

The president’s message was unequivocal—Apple must shift manufacturing home or pay a heavy price.

Trump’s demands come amid an ongoing trade war and tariff environment that have already disrupted global supply chains. Apple, which has traditionally assembled the vast majority of its iPhones in China, is now diversifying its manufacturing footprint by ramping up production in India.

The company aims to have the majority of U.S.-bound iPhones imported from India by the end of this year, a move designed to reduce exposure to tariffs and geopolitical risk.

Dan Ives, the global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, is among the most vocal skeptics of the idea that iPhones can be cheaply produced in the U.S. He estimates that, with tariffs included, consumers could see iPhone prices rise to around $2,300.

That alone is a steep jump from the current starting price of $1,199 for Apple’s latest flagship models. But Ives warns that if Apple were to fully move production to the U.S., the cost could balloon to an eye-watering $3,500 per device.

“This is a fairy tale that is not feasible,” Ives said, referring to the prospect of domestic iPhone manufacturing in the near term. He argues that the complex supply chain, specialized labor, and infrastructure required would take Apple five to ten years to establish, if it ever happens.

On the other side of the debate, Drew DeLong, who leads the Geopolitical Dynamics Practice at Kearney, offers a more tempered view. He believes that the price increases driven by tariffs alone would be modest, in the range of $100 to $200.

DeLong also emphasizes that Apple has been largely exempt from some of the reciprocal tariffs that have hit other companies, lessening the immediate financial impact.

DeLong points to other factors Apple would need to consider if it moved production stateside—such as the cost and availability of energy and skilled workers. Tax cuts or deregulation efforts could offset some costs, but the company would still face challenges scaling up manufacturing capacity in the U.S.

The prospect of Apple building a fully functional iPhone manufacturing facility in the U.S. is daunting. Apple’s supply chain is one of the most sophisticated in the world, with hundreds of suppliers and component manufacturers primarily based in Asia. Recreating that ecosystem domestically would require massive investments in infrastructure, workforce training, and technology over many years.

Apple has pledged to invest $500 billion in the U.S. economy over the next four years, which includes new facilities in Texas and investments in AI and other technologies. However, analysts like Ives caution that this investment is not focused on iPhone manufacturing.

“If you look at where Apple is investing, the bulk of it is in AI-driven initiatives and not in setting up domestic iPhone assembly lines,” Ives said.

DeLong notes that Apple’s planned server manufacturing plant in Houston, Texas, slated to open in 2026, shows that the company can establish advanced manufacturing domestically. But this is very different from the large-scale, labor-intensive assembly required for iPhones.

During Trump’s first term, the president claimed that Tim Cook had promised to build three Apple factories in the U.S. However, Apple built no smartphone plants domestically during that period. The current administration has granted Apple tariff exemptions for smartphones, which Apple has leveraged to shift some production to India without suffering tariff penalties.

Nikolas Guggenberger, a law professor at the University of Houston, explains that Trump’s recent statements may be more of a political signal than immediate policy.

“The president can announce an intention or policy direction, but formal implementation requires going through official government channels,” Guggenberger said.

If Trump were to remove tariff exemptions, Apple could face a sudden 25% tariff on imported smartphones. Alternatively, the administration could target tariffs specifically on phones imported from India, where Apple is increasing production for the U.S. market. Both actions would likely raise prices and disrupt supply chains—not just for Apple but other manufacturers as well.

For buyers, the difference between a $1,200 iPhone and a $3,500 iPhone is huge. Most analysts agree that Apple will avoid a full-scale U.S. manufacturing shift in the short term because of the cost and complexity. Instead, the company will likely continue its global production strategy, while making incremental investments in U.S.-based facilities that align with its long-term innovation roadmap.

Consumers might see some price increases due to tariffs or supply chain disruptions, but the dramatic leap to thousands of dollars per device is unlikely anytime soon.

The Trump administration’s push for Apple to manufacture iPhones domestically is part of a broader political and economic strategy focused on reshoring manufacturing and protecting American jobs. However, experts widely agree that the cost and logistical challenges make a rapid shift impractical.

While tariff threats and political pressure may raise costs modestly, the oft-cited $3,500 price tag for a U.S.-made iPhone remains more theoretical than imminent. Apple will continue balancing geopolitical risks, production costs, and consumer demand as it navigates this complex landscape.

For now, the status quo remains: most iPhones will continue to be assembled overseas, with the price tags consumers know—and the political debate far from over.